President Trump's protectionist measures to make the United States "Great Again" hint to an uncertain and fragile future for Mexico, with little hope of economic recovery and the continued undermining of migrants' rights. The analysis of a Mexican feminist economist
Mexican
migrations
"We are going to wait, as I have always said, with a cool head, making the decisions" said Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, President of Mexico, who has taken drastic measures in response to Trump's onslaught against its United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (UMSCA) trade partners.
For the Mexican government, the three points of Trump's campaign were significant in understanding the policy he would undertake the day after his inauguration. According to the President, fentanyl exports carried out by cartels to the United States are killing Americans, migration is jeopardising the southern border, with the entry of criminal groups into the country being a danger, and the trade deficit resulting from the UMSCA has created significant losses for American entrepreneurs.
The response from President Claudia Sheinbaum at the close of this article, and after fulfilling the threat of 25% tariffs as of 1 February 2025, has been a reasoned one.
First, Trump has accused the Mexican government of being responsible for the deaths of Americans due to the consumption of fentanyl sold in US cities. For Mexico, in the voice of its president, the United States government has allowed the sale of opioids because it is a lucrative business whose profits enter the banking circuit, ignoring the origin of the money resulting from the distribution of fentanyl and other drugs.
Second, Trump has mentioned that there is a close relationship between the Mexican government and drug cartels, requesting their classification as terrorist groups. The president has shown that high-caliber weapons that are introduced into Mexico come mainly from the main American arms manufacturers and, that their sale is tolerated by the US government itself.
Then, Trump demands to stop the migration that enters through the southern border, accusing migrants of being criminals. Therefore, they should be deported to Mexico, regardless of whether they are Mexicans or of another nationality who emigrate from the countries known as the Northern Triangle (Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras), Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela. The Mexican government has implemented several programmes that will be mentioned below.
Ultimately, in relation to reducing the trade deficit of the United States with Mexico, ignoring the UMSCA – negotiated by Trump himself in 2020, during his first term as president of the United States – will have an effect on the production chains built since the beginning of the first North American Free Trade (NAFTA) agreement in 1994. The main products are auto parts and cars from American companies whose production is carried out in Mexico, fresh vegetables, TVs, Tequila, Mezcal, avocados, tomatoes, raspberries and strawberries (these are partly US companies in partnership with Mexican companies).
Protecting Mexican people in the US
I will start with an analysis of the actions of the Mexican government to protect Mexicans in the United States. With the arrival of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States of America for the second time on 20 January 2025, and in the face of threats of mass deportations of undocumented migrants – the majority of them Latinos and at least 10 million of them Mexicans – the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, has had to implement strategies that were not contemplated in the "Mexico Plan, Goals 2030" in matters of migration. This has increased uncertainty among those who have been deported during the first week of the US president's term.
The strategies and emergency plans announced by the president of Mexico for the arrival of Mexicans from the United States, whether forcibly or voluntarily, are:
- "México te abraza" Strategy: this strategy will make available to returning migrants the "Tarjeta Bienestar Paisano" (Countryman Welfare Card), which provides 2,000 pesos to cover transportation costs to the migrants' communities of origin. It will also offer affiliation with the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS) "to access the five types of insurance contemplated in the Social Security Law, including Sickness and Maternity, Work Risks, Disability and Life, Retirement, Unemployment in Advanced Age and Old Age, as well as benefits in Daycare Centers and other Social Benefits" (Presidency of the Republic, 2025). Within this plan, the issue of migrants' identity documents will also be facilitated, and if necessary, the Unique Population Registry Code (CURP).
- Expansion of Consular Services and ConsulApp Contigo: an application that aims to "provide security and support in emergency situations to migrants. It strengthens the services of the 53 Mexican Consulates in the United States through the digitisation of procedures for migrants. In addition, a legal team of 2,610 people has been formed and an additional 1,700 people have been added to support the consular network, forming a team of 4,383 people who will support, guide and defend migrants in the USA, regardless of their immigration status or the place where they are located. The institution in charge is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, (Presidency of the Republic, 2025).
- Strengthening of the Information and Assistance Center for Mexican Persons (CIAM): "This centre provides care 24 hours a day and seven days a week, through the numbers 520 623 7874 from the United States and Canada, as well as 001 520 623 7874 from Mexico. The CIAM is responsible for providing assistance and support to Mexican migrants abroad". It is a 24/7 telephone centre where calls are even answered in indigenous languages (Presidency of the Republic, 2025).
- Mexican Model of Human Mobility: "This model is based on four key actions: the regularisation and empowerment of Mexican communities abroad; structural causes: Mexico's cooperation in economic and social programmes in communities of origin and return of migration, and external political and economic factors that inhibit development, such as sanctions, debt and less access to cooperation; labour mobility pathways; coordinated actions for the humanitarian management of irregular migratory flows" (Presidency of the Republic, 2025). The institutions involved are the Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Interior, Welfare, Labor, Education, Tax Administration Service (SAT), Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
Migrant Attention Centers: the Sheinbaum government has established nine attention centers as part of the "Mexico Embraces You" programme to receive all deported compatriots. These centers are located in Baja California (Tijuana and Mexicali), Sonora (Nogales), Chihuahua (Ciudad Juárez), Coahuila (Nueva Rosita), Nuevo León (El Carmen), and Tamaulipas (Matamoros, Reynosa, and Nuevo Laredo). The objective is to provide support and resources to migrants returning to the country. The institution in charge is the Government of Mexico.
These policies are conceived with a humanitarian approach that seeks to address the needs of migrants, giving them security upon their return to Mexico so that they can reintegrate into Mexican society.
Despite the fact that "Latinos and Mexicans are very important to the United States economy, and the Trump administration knows that" (Presidency of the Republic, 2025), Mexico has received more than 6,029 deportees in these first days of Trump's term.
On the other hand, the issue of migration from the United States to Mexico has been significant during the past five years. The figures of immigrants from the United States in Mexico are increasing. "381,464 immigrants from the United States were registered, 30.2% women and 69.8% men" in 2024 (DATA MÉXICO), a phenomenon that raises the cost of living and even privatises public spaces in the areas these immigrants come to reside. Not to mention that many of them bring companies that do not pay taxes properly, taking advantage of the exchange rate of the peso against the dollar, as well as the low cost of housing and food in Mexico.
Migrations
Migrations and deportations are the result of the economic cycle and the needs of migrants in the United States. Migration is part of our history, and the one from Mexico to the United States represents a dialectical relationship between two neighbours, whose border lines have existed on the maps since Mexico signed the Treaty of Peace, Friendship, and Limits of Guadalupe Hidalgo. Through this treaty, Mexico lost the territories of Texas, New Mexico, and Upper California, ceding more than half of its territory to the United States in 1848. Upon losing a portion of its territory to the US government, families were divided. The flow of people between the two countries became then a natural movement, in search of employment or due to family ties. Many Mexicans would go to work in the United States and return to their localities. The increase in demand for Mexican labour during the industrialisation process, the period of two world wars, and the transition of the US industrial plant to China and other countries transformed the United States into a service economy, which drove the migration of Mexican workforce to the agricultural and construction sectors.
For some authors, the North American Free Trade Agreement represents the beginning of globalisation, neoliberalism, or financialisation. Precisely, the peaks of migration in the last fifty years are related to the economic and financial crises of Mexico and its insertion in the financial circuits of the Federal Reserve of the United States. From the processes of deregulation and economic liberalisation within the framework of the Washington Consensus and the monetary policies of the Fed, they fostered the recurring economic crises not only of Mexico, but also of Latin America and other underdeveloped countries. These are represented in the following dates: 1976, 1982, 1994, 2008, and 2020.
For us, migration and deportations of Mexicans and those from the "Northern Triangle" countries of Central America – Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras – respond to the austerity policies implemented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since the beginning of the seventies, in addition to the recurring financial and economic crises of the last fifty years. The process of expelling the labour force, reduction of government social spending, as well as the blurring of the agricultural sector by cutting subsidies and receiving grain imports signed in trade agreements, prepared the ground for the cultivation of marijuana and the passage of drugs coming from the Andean countries. Of course, the channeling of public spending has prioritised the financial cost of external debt with foreign creditors, both with commercial banks and with institutional investors.
Migration and trade agreements
From the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994 to the implementation of the Treaty between Mexico, the United States, and Canada (UMSCA) in 2020, a growing period of migration began.
The migration and expulsion of labour stems from two fundamental points. First, the signing of the treaty allowed the production of corn, the basis of the Mexican diet, carried out by Mexican farmers, to be provided by American companies located in the "Corn Belt" of the United States. The impact of unfair competition caused the Mexican countryside to fade in corn production, and exports of fruits and vegetables were increased. Second, the abandoned countryside displaced workers to the United States, both in the agricultural and construction sector. It could be affirmed that there is a causal relationship between the demand for labour in the United States and the need for income.
Data from Mexicans and citizens of other countries differ greatly according to different statistical platforms. In the United States census, people are not asked which countries they are from in order to encourage them to answer the questions. The only information available is that offered by Mexican consulates in the United States through the Consular Registration.
According to a recent study, 69% of the population of Mexican origin in the United States are citizens by birth; Americans by naturalisation 10%; 8% legal permanent residents; 4,926,393 are unauthorised citizens (13%).
This last range is what is in Trump's sights for deportations affecting the construction, agricultural, and service sectors.
Status of the Population of Mexican Origin in the United States
Deportations
The hypothesis with which this section begins is to demonstrate how migration and deportations, beyond the political discourse used by the government, are a function of GDP growth and the needs of the US economy. Thus, in the period of Barack Obama, framed by the Great International Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, the expulsion of labour was necessary, but not so in the recovery period of the first years of Donald Trump's government, when deportations increased due to Covid-19. Due to political reasons, Joe Biden accelerated deportations without reaching an agreement to guarantee nationality to resident persons and even to resolve the situation of 'dreamers' – that is, those Mexicans who arrived as children and who are immersed in the culture and economy of the country, but do not have US nationality.
Below, we present a table of deportations from the last three presidential periods related to the needs of the demand for migrant labor.
US Immigration and Custom Enforcement (ICE) Removals 2009-2024 [1]
In the following table, it can be observed that the origin of migration not only comes from Mexico but also from the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America, who have fought for independent governments, but the influence of transnational companies and the oligarchy of these small countries has impeded economic development. The environmental destruction in these countries has led to migration in search of better working conditions and to escape the violence perpetrated within them. The transition towards democratic regimes with social inclusion has been difficult due to the interests of the United States in the region. Added to these is the migration from Haiti, Venezuela, and recently, migratory flows from Africa and Asia.
US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Removals by Nationality [2]
In relation to Mexican migrants aged 18 and over repatriated from the United States, according to the latest data from the Mexican government, a reduction is observed given the trend presented for 2023.
Mexican migrants aged 18 and older repatriated from the United States
Trade Deficit Between the United States and Mexico
The trade deficit between exports and imports of Mexico and the United States has experienced a significant evolution from 1994 to 2024, showing constant growth in absolute terms, although with variations in its percentage growth rate.
It is projected that by 2024 the trade deficit will reach 237,923 million dollars, with a growth rate of 39.18% compared to 2020. This projection suggests that the trade deficit will continue to expand, although at a slightly slower pace than in previous periods.
Trade between the United States and Mexico
Regarding the products traded between both partners, Mexico's purchases from the United States have positioned petroleum or bituminous mineral oils as the main product, increasing participation since 2006, when it represented 4.34% of Mexico's international purchases, equivalent to 4.9 billion dollars. In 2024, this purchase came to represent 12.20% of Mexico's total purchases, with a value of 28 billion dollars.
On the other hand, between 2006 and 2024, the sales that Mexico makes to the United States, place the products of machinery and the automotive sector as the main ones. Just to show the intensity of commercial integration and its deepening, we can look at how between 2006 and 2010, television monitors and projectors were the main product, with a share of 9.09% and 8.87% within Mexico's international sales. In the automotive sector, automobiles and other passenger transport vehicles have been the best-selling product to the United States, reaching a total value of 35,979 million dollars, equivalent to 8.28% of Mexico's international sales.
Future scenarios
Firstly, the entry into force of the tariffs is currently impacting the stock market. The depreciation of the peso has initiated by 2% before the opening of the markets, and by another 2% at the start of a week in which Monday 3 February is not a working day, resuming until Tuesday 4 February 2025.
Secondly, the measures taken by President Trump will impact consumer prices. According to Capital Economics, an analysis firm, "a 25% tariff on products from Canada and Mexico will raise the inflation rate to around 3.2%, keeping it well above the Fed's 2% target".
Thirdly, remittances to Mexico are indispensable for many families who stay behind. 2023 was the year in which the most remittances were received ($60,925 million), and for 2024 a decrease to $46,670 million was recorded, which again puts us in a scenario of uncertainty in which, ceteris paribus, 2025 ends with historical falls.
In reality, the border does not exist. Over time, a close relationship has been deepened – not only economic, but also political and cultural. Despite the fact that the two nations became independent from the empires of Great Britain and Spain, they have since formed a legally constituted marriage through trade agreements including Canada, thus forming the North American region. Today, President Trump's protectionist measures to make the United States "Great Again" will break value chains in the region. The future is uncertain, fragile and with little hope of economic recovery.
This article stems from the research Mexican Migration, Politics and Economics. The research is part of the project "Tensions in Financial Markets, Capital Flows and Credit Risks" (PAPIIT: IN303024) financed by the General Direction of Academic Personnel Affairs (DGAPA) of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). We are grateful for the support of Adheli Galindo and Liliana Cañeda, fellows of the National System of Researchers of the National Science, Humanities, Technology and Innovation Ministery (SECIHTI) of Mexico.
Notes
[1] According to the reports of each fiscal year from 2009-2024, which spans from 1 October to 30 September.
[2] n/d = no data. According to the years 2021, 2022, and 2022 of the fiscal year, which spans from 1 October to 30 September, "Individual T42 Expulsion flights may stop at multiple locations. ICE confirms the integrity of the data as published on this site and cannot attest to subsequent transmissions. Data fluctuates until "locked" at the conclusion of the fiscal year. These statistics are published with data one quarter in arrears. Future quarter-end and year-end reporting may include corrections and other updates and will supersede previous quarter's data" (ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations Statistics, nd.)
References
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Statistics, 2016.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Removal statistics: 2016, United States Government, 2016.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Removal statistics: 2017, United States Government, 2017.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, ERO 2018., United States Government, 2018.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Annual report: FY2020, United States Government, 2020.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Annual report: FY2022, United States Government, 2022.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Spotlight: statistics, United States Government, s.f.