Growth without
improvement

Until recently, the dominant narrative suggested a highly favourable post-COVID employment trend in Italy, particularly for women.  Was this just rhetoric, or did it reflect reality? To find out, let's examine the past three years, starting from late 2021, when job losses due to the pandemic had just been recovered, and the first instalment of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) had been disbursed.

While it is still too early to assess the impact of NRRP's policies, it is useful to recall the Plan’s ambitions: a positive growth differential for female employment, improved job quality therein ­– less job insecurity and involuntary part-time work in particular – greater STEM-related job opportunities, and less occupational sex-typing. To what extent have developments over the past three years aligned with these goals?

Women's employment grew by half a million jobs (+473,000 between December 2021 and December 2024, according to ISTAT), pushing the employment rate more than three percentage points above the 50% threshold reached before the pandemic. However, the gender gap also widened, although slightly: the employment rate gap between men and women, which stood at 17.2 percentage points in December 2021, rose to 18.2 points in December 2024.

Among women, the 15-39 age group saw higher-than-average employment growth – a trend not mirrored among men. Meanwhile, employment in Southern Italy grew at a more dynamic pace than the rest of the country for both women and men.[1] Of the three occupational segments the NRRP had targeted for higher than average growth - southern workers, young people, and women - the first experienced some gains in relative terms, the second only partially, the third still lags behind. 

As to the quality of employment conditions, temporary work declined significantly among men over the past three years (-15.7%) but increased slightly among women (+2.4%).[2] Meanwhile, involuntary part-time employment decreased for both sexes, with a more pronounced drop among women. However, women continue to experience involuntary part-time work at a disproportionately high rate according to INPS data (15.6% of all employed women compared to 5.6% of men).[3]

An underlying issue is the failure to rebalance female employment across different sectors. The NRRP aims to increase women’s presence in dynamic, better-paying sectors while reducing their concentration in low-wage, precarious jobs. Up to now, however, female employment has not increased primarily in male-dominated sectors, nor has it decreased where women were already the majority.

Figure 1 makes this clear. It plots the percentage incidence of women’s workers within NACE sectors (the EU’s classification of economic activities) against change therein over the past three years. The scatter plot shows a random cloud of points around zero, indicating no strong association in either direction.

Figure 1.  Feminization of activities and change therein

Source:  Eurostat, Labour Force Survey, quarterly data.

Yet, there is change behind this seemingly static outcome. A closer analysis reveals significant sectoral employment shifts which, however, barely scratched occupational stereotypes in some cases, reinforced them in other cases or even created new ones.

For example, the crisis in the automotive industry reduced male employment, but men have found opportunities in other traditionally male-dominated sectors like construction and transport. And while women increased their thin presence in transport jobs, gains are limited in absolute terms. 

The textile and clothing industry downturn led to a slightly more feminized workforce since male workers were comparatively more affected.  Within households, nearly 100,000 female domestic workers and 4,000 male workers lost their jobs between late 2021 and late 2024.   The overwhelming feminisation of care work was barely scratched as a result, while care services to families suffered. 

Nor has growth of other feminized sectors consistently benefitted women’s employment conditions. Accommodation (hotels and B&Bs), beauty and wellness services (hairdressers, beauticians, and spa workers) have all seen a rise in jobs but remain characterised by precarious employment conditions. And although employment has resumed or continued to grow in comparatively feminized public sectors like education, health and public administration traditionally offering employment stability, this tradition has been partly eroded: according to INPS data, more than 22% of female public-sector workers were on fixed-term contracts in 2023.[4]

Fortunately, not all developments followed the same old script. For example, there are timid signs of change in STEM-related fields (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics).  Both the number and the share of female professionals have risen since late 2021, though this category includes both lawyers and engineers. The female workforce has also grown in IT-related jobs, with nearly 20,000 more women employed as programmers, technicians, consultants, and other IT specialists. However, this growth has not kept pace with the concomitant rise in male employment in this sector.  

Will full implementation of the NRRP bring more radical change in the near future?  As noted, the Plan aims to expand vocational education in order to bridge the skill gap in emerging technologies among young people and women. More importantly, it has committed to develop the social infrastructure needed to alleviate the burden of unpaid care work, thereby supporting women's employment. Investment in childcare care facilities, as well as new generation residential care and hospital facilities (ospedali e case di comunità) are all part of this effort.

Actual progress is, however, difficult to assess. Data is currently available on the expansion of nursery schools, but much less is known about other initiatives. According to estimates from the Parliamentary Budget Office, in the best-case scenario ­– and with the help of a declining birth rate – the NRRP could ensure a childcare coverage rate of at least 33% in all Italian regions except Campania and Sicily, and 45% in seven regions, four of which in Southern Italy (45% is the 2030 European benchmark for childcare coverage).

Figure 2. Number of Slots per 100 Children Aged 0-2 Years (Average Population 2026) in Two Estimation Scenarios

Source: Parliamentary Budget Office (Focus Tematico No. 1/15, gennaio 2025).

These projections are reassuring, despite the anticipation that delays in some southern regions will persist (Figure 2). However, the NRRP primarily funds capital expenditure ­– buildings and equipment – while current expenditure – for teachers, meal services, teaching materials etc – Is mostly shouldered by local authorities.

Municipalities are aware of the risk that budget constraints could undermine the actual functioning of newly created facilities. To address this, the Municipal Solidarity Fund has recently been boosted, but more radical solutions are called for in the medium and long run. One such solution would be to fully integrate nurseries into the formal education system. 

The case of nurseries raises a more general issue:  whether in education, healthcare, or care services, the NRRP’s long-term impact will depend on follow-up measures to ensure the funds needed to operate whatever physical infrastructures will be created.

Looking back at the past three years, it is hard not to see stalemate still threatening progress.  Let us then stay focussed on the progress and take on the challenge of filling a glass that is still too empty. 

Lately, we have been waking up to a world dominated by sheer relationships of power.       Having a well-paid job is power for ordinary people, women in particular. 

Notes

[1] According to Eurostat REGIO data, between 2021 and 2023 (third quarter), employment growth in Southern Italy accounted for 32% of overall job growth – exceeding its percentage share of national employment. The positive difference was particularly significant for women.

[2] Based on Eurostat LFS quarterly data 2021-2024.

[3] See INPS, Rendiconto di Genere 2024, p. 45.

[4] See INPS, Rendiconto di Genere 2024, p. 40.